Can Bitcoin Experience a Supercycle and Hit $500k or $1M?

Bitcoin has a four-year cycle theory, which has been tried and tested many times. But can Bitcoin achieve a supercycle and go above the diminishing returns? In a supercycle, the Bitcoin price reverses and shatters the idea of diminishing returns.

Diminishing Returns

The percentage returns of each cycle are getting less and less over time, which is the idea of diminishing returns. For example, the first major bull run had a 50,000 return, and the next had an 11,500 percent return. The current cycle has seen an 8,200 percent return. To reverse the diminishing returns and have a super cycle, Bitcoin would need to go above $400,000.

The Next Cycle

To determine whether a supercycle is possible, we can look at the previous halvings, which occurred in May 2020. The price of Bitcoin around the halving was about $9,000, which was 45% of the previous all-time high. For the next halving in 2024, Bitcoin needs to be above this threshold to potentially achieve a supercycle.

The Math

We need to figure out what number will be greater than 45% of the previous all-time high ($70,000). The answer is $31,500. Bitcoin needs to be above this number to be on track for a supercycle.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Bitcoin can achieve a supercycle if it reverses the idea of diminishing returns and goes above $400,000. To determine whether a supercycle is possible, we can look at the price of Bitcoin around the next halving in 2024. If Bitcoin is above $31,500 at that time, it may be on track for a supercycle.